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Sunday January 29, 2012 The Markets Last Week !
![]() The 52 week high is 12,810.54 , set on 4/29/2011. The 52 low is 10,655.30, set on 10/3/11. The "all-time" high is 14,164.53, set on 10/9/07. The Nasdaq (2,816.55) finished the week up + 29.85 (+ 1.07%), making it up + 211.40 (+ 8.11%) on the year. The index closed off - 47.72 (-1.80%) for the year 2012. The 52 week high is 2,873.64, set on 4/29/11. The 52 week low is 2335.83, set on 10/3/11. The "all-time" high is 5048.62, set on 3/10/2000. The SPREAD (2,191.70) finished the week up + 35.68 (+ 1.65%), making it up + when a 3.11 (+ 9.12%) on the year. The index closed off - 123.73 (-5.80%) for the year 2012. Both are basically the same market, with the only exception being about 250 OTC stocks in the VL (the rest, over 1500, are NY listed). It tells us how the two separate markets are currently acting with the VL leaning slightly to the OTC market. The graph below shows the closing indices on (9/21/01), the end of the first full week of trading after the Attack on America. ![]() If we bought the Transports at the same time, we would have a gain of 160.11%. and the % over that low at the closing price on the week. ![]() There is 0 indices with less than 10% to fall from the 52 week low this past week vs 0 the week before versus 4 two weeks ago and 4 three week ago. and cover this past week versus the week before. ![]() The difference between these two indices is the SPREAD. The SPREAD climbs when the VL is climbing faster than the NY, and falls when the VL falls faster than the NY. The VL tends to lean more toward the direction of the Nasdaq index, or we could say, the big OTC stocks. be considered bearish near term. The OTC stocks carried in the VL (the only part of the " SPREAD (NY vs VL)" with OTC stocks in it) are only a couple of hundred of the top OTC stocks, because the majority of the stocks in the VL are NY listed, and none are smaller caps. This means when the VL performs better than the NY it shows more buying in the top OTC stocks, or vice versa. high and cover this past week versus the week before. ![]() None of the indices
set a new 52 week high this past week
vs 0 the week before. Thirty nine weeks
ago we watched all the indices set a new 52 week high on the same day,
while the DJT - RUT - VL & SPREAD reached new all-time
highs. First "all-time" high on the Transports since 2/8/2010 and the first
all-time high on the RUT since 7/13/2007.
I have always said that if all the indices reach a new high on the same day it will be the top of the current market and it will be down for a while . This happened on April 29, 2011 and the markets have taken since last April just to get back close to new highs again. The SPREAD & VL reached a new "all-time" 89 weeks ago (7.40 years ago), which turned out to have been the market top, taking 28 weeks to reach another high. Could we see a such a long correction again? All of a sudden it has become very possible. There are 0 indices with a "double digit" percentage discount to the 52 week high (a definition of a correction) vs 4 the previous week and 4 the week before. There are 0 indices in bear market territory (a discount to the 52 week high over 20 percent) vs 0 last week and 0 the week before. When we look at the indices compared to the 52 week high, we get a look at the shorter picture. However, the discount to the "all-time high" (below) will continue to show the results of the longer term market. More
than a 10 percent discount to the 52 week high is "one" definition of a correction. The below figures are the discount to the all-time high compared to this past weeks close. ![]() Use caution and buy the bargains! current market and what to look for this coming week. Clicking on "The Current Market" will take you there! past "monthly" performance on the indices going back to 1994. Clicking on the "Index Gains & Losses" will take you there! Be sure to visit our "Spotlight Futures" for a look at metals, oil and currency futures updated weekly. Clicking on the "Spotlight Futures" will take you there! Be sure to visit our weekly "Stocks to Watch" section for brief news headlines and updated buy, sell, hold opinions on several Spotlight favorites from the past. Clicking on the "Stocks To Watch" will take you there! "If in the right stock, at the right price, the market direction will mean little!"
There
is still many negatives in the economy, and the markets, so continue to
use caution and stick with value stocks for safety.
Choose wisely! I am J.R. Budke and this is my opinion!
J.R. Budke was a stock broker from
1981 to 2000, an options principle since 1982 and a branch office manager
since 1987. JR became inactive as a stockbroker on 12/31/99. J.R. writes
most of the articles and opinions for the Stocks in the Spotlight.
The stories and stocks
found on this site, or any "Stocks in the Spotlight" written material, are
the opinions of J.R. Budke, unless other wise stated, and should not be
considered as advice. You
should not purchase any stocks solely on the opinions found on the "Stocks
in the Spotlight's" web site or in any of its written material. You should
also be aware that options are not for everybody and carry a high degree
of risk. |
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