|
Sunday March 7, 2010
The Markets Last Week
!
|
Closing prices week ending (3/5/10) vs
week ending (2/26/10)
|
The DOW 30 has closed over the 10,000 level for the
last 18 straight trading days, after falling under
for 1 day
All but 1 of the major indices closed the week on positive ground for the year
The
DOW 30
(10,566.20),
closed up + 240.94 (+ 2.33%) on the week, making the index up + 138.15 (+ 1.32%) on the
year. The 52 week high is 10,725.43, set on 1/19/2010. The index has remained out of bear territory for the 30th
week, after being there for 44 weeks, and out of correction territory after being there for 67 weeks.
.
The
"all-time" high is 14,164.53, set on 10/9/07. The 52 low is 6,547.05, set on 3/9/09.
The
Nasdaq
(2,326.35)
(new 52 week high)
finished the week up + 88.09 (+ 3.94%), making it up + 57.20 (+ 2.52%) on the year. The 52 week high is 2,326.35, set on 3/5/10.
The
all-time high is 5048.62, set on 3/10/2000. The 52 week low is 1268.64, set 3/9/09.
The
SPREAD (1,745.52) (new all-time high) finished the week up + 94.69
(+ 5.74%), making it up
+ 145.46 (+ 9.09%) on
the year, and the "all-time" high of 1745.52 set on 3/5/2010. The 52 week low is 619.74, set on 3/9/08.
The SPREAD is the difference between the close on
the NY and the close on the VL.
Both are basically the same market, with the only exception
being about 250
OTC stocks in the VL (the rest, over 1500, are NY listed).
It tells us how the two separate markets are currently acting
with the VL leaning slightly to the OTC market.
The graph below shows the closing indices on (9/21/01), the end of the
first full week of trading after the Attack on America.
The week ended with
all 11 indices
trading higher than on 9/21/2001, versus 11 two weeks ago and 11 three week ago.
Just 48 weeks ago, the DJIA fell to the lowest point since April of 1997,
but has climbed over 62 percent since.
The below table shows the 52 week low, when it expired,
the point difference
and the % over that low at the closing price on the week.
All the indices set a new 52 week low - on the same day - on 3/9/09
The
above table shows 11
indices with more than 30% to fall last week, before breaking the 52 week low, versus 11 two weeks ago and 10 three week ago (more
bearish).
The below figures are % change from closing
year-end indices
and cover this past week versus the week before.
There
are 10 indices
finishing in positive territory "year-to-date" this past week versus 4 the week before and 4 three weeks ago. The NY index is up + (1.48%), with a difference of up + (3.57%) on the week, while the VL is up + (6.88%), a difference of up + (5.26%). This tells us the big OTC stocks outperformed the blue chips for the 5th week,
after stronger blue chips for 1 week, after stronger OTC stocks for the 7 weeks (more bullish).
The
difference between these two indices is the SPREAD. The SPREAD climbs
when the VL is climbing faster than the NY, and falls when the VL falls faster than the NY. The VL tends to lean
more toward the direction of the Nasdaq index, or we should say, the big OTC stocks.
The markets tend to climb when the
VL beats the NY, meaning the current stronger VL would
be considered near term bullish. Also, the three indices in positive territory all
lean toward the OTC stocks. Another bullish sign for the near term.
The SPREAD
is "unique"
to the Stocks in the Spotlight since we designed it in 1990 by producing an "equal weighted value equation"
allowing a better view of the longer term markets when comparing the big OTC stocks to the New York Exchange listed
stocks. The SPREAD has been adjusted for the big change of the New York index at the beginning of 2004.
The OTC stocks carried in the VL (the only part of
the "SPREAD (NY vs VL)" with
OTC stocks in it) are only a couple of hundred of the top OTC stocks, because the majority
of the stocks in the VL are NY listed, and none are smaller caps. This means when the VL
performs better than the NY it shows more buying in the top OTC stocks, or vice versa.
The below figures are the discount
to the 52 week
high and cover this past week versus the week before.
Four of the 11 major
indices reached a new 52 week highs this past week, the Nasdaq, RUT, VL & SPREAD, with all but 1 index closing
in positive territory for the year.
The SPREAD is
still the only index to reach a new all-time high and it needs to be confirmed by at least one other index setting a new record high.
If it takes too long the odds of s big correction becomes greater.
There are 0 indices with a "double
digit" percentage discount to the 52 week high (a
definition of a correction) vs 0 the previous week and 1 the week before. There are 0 indices in bear market territory (a discount to the 52 week high over 20 percent)
vs 0 last week
and 0 the week
before.
When we look
at the indices compared to the 52 week high, we get a look at the shorter picture. However, the discount to the
"all-time high"
(below) will continue to show the results of the longer term market.
More
than a 10
percent discount to the 52 week high is "one" definition of a correction.
More
than a 20
percent discount to the 52 week high is "one" definition of a bear market.
The below figures are the discount to the all-time high
compared to this past weeks close.
More than a 20 percent discount to the all-time high is another definition of a bear market.
Using this definition,
there are currently 8
indices in bear market territory compared to 8 two weeks ago and 8 three weeks ago (more
bullish).
Use caution, continue to look to the small stocks and buy the
bargains!
Be sure to visit "The Current Market"
for comments about the
current market and what to look for this coming week.
Clicking on "The Current Market" will take you there!
Be sure to visit "Monthly Gains & Losses"
for a look at the
past "monthly" performance on the indices going back to 1994.
Clicking on the "Index Gains & Losses" will take you there!
Be sure to visit our "Spotlight Futures" for a look at
metals, oil and currency futures updated weekly.
Clicking on the "Spotlight
Futures" will take you there!
Be sure to visit our weekly "Stocks to Watch" section
for brief news headlines and updated buy, sell, hold
opinions on several Spotlight favorites from the past.
Clicking on the "Stocks To Watch"
will take you there!
"If in the right stock, at the right price,
the market direction will mean little!"
There is still many
negatives in the economy, and the markets, so continue to use caution and stick with value stocks for safety. Choose wisely!
I am J.R. Budke and this is my opinion!
| The recommendations and updates in this week ahead may include "forward-
looking" statements as that term is defined in the Private Security Reform Act of 1995, & therefore are
subject to various risks & uncertainties. There can be no assurance that actual results, business conditions,
business developments, losses & contingencies, and local & foreign factors will not differ materially from
those suggested in the "forward-looking" statements as a result of various factors, including market
conditions, competition, advances in technology, acquisitions, potential litigation, personnel changes, capital
availability, and all sorts of other factors. Do not make investments based on the material provided in this article.
Investors should not make decisions based on any of the material featured here without first consulting with their
brokers and/or financial advisors. |
J.R. Budke was a stock broker from 1981 to 2000, an options principle
since 1982 and a branch office manager since 1987. JR became inactive as a stockbroker on 12/31/99. J.R. writes
most of the articles and opinions for the Stocks in the Spotlight. The
stories and stocks found on this site, or any "Stocks in the Spotlight" written material, are the opinions
of J.R. Budke, unless other wise stated, and should not be considered as advice.
You should not purchase any stocks solely on the opinions found on the "Stocks in the Spotlight's" web
site or in any of its written material. You should also be aware that options are not for everybody and carry a
high degree of risk.
The "Stocks in the Spotlight" provides information only, this is not meant to be a recommendation to
buy or sell the profiled security, nor is this an offer to buy or sell the security. The
publishers of "Stocks in the Spotlight" are not investment advisors and are not acting in any way to
influence the purchase or sale of the security. Before purchasing
or selling any security profiled, it is encouraged and recommended that you consult a stockbroker or your registered
financial advisor. The reader must understand that the companies we select may involve a high degree of investment
risk. Potential investors must understand that they may lose all or a portion of their investment due to the risk
involved. Some of the stocks covered on this page may be sponsors, or advertisers, for the Stocks in the Spotlight
and may have paid cash, or stock, for advertising programs.
Please
read our complete disclaimer
|
