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Sunday October 8, 2017


The Markets Last Week !

Closing prices week ending (10/06/17) vs week ending 10/01/17)

 Indices year-end change

         There were 9 indices to reach a new 52 week high this past week vs 9 the week before


The DOW 30 (22,773.67), closed  up +368.58 (+1.65%) on the week, making the index up +2642.49 (+13.37%) on the year.

The
"all-time/52wk high" is 22,775.39, set on 10/5/2017. The 52 low is 17,888.28 set on 11/04/16.

The Nasdaq (6,590.18) finished the week
up +94.22 (+1.45%), making it up +1112.84 (+20.67%) on the year. The index closed  up + 415.86 (+15.96%) for 2012, up + 1137.08 (+37.66%) for 2013 and up + 559.46 (+13.40%) for 2014, up + 271.36 (+5.73%) for 2015 and up + 375.71 (+7.50%) for 2016.

The
52 week-high & all-time high is 6,590.18, set on 10/6/2017. The 52 week low is 5,046.37, set on 11/04/16. Previously "all-time" high was 5048.62, set on 3/10/2000. It took 15 years for the NASDAQ to start reaching new all time highs.

The
SPREAD (4,693.15) finished the week up +49.66 (+1.07%), making it up + 406.27 (+9.59%) on the year. The index closed up + 261.89 (+7.76%) for 2015 and up + 818.05 (+23.93%) for 2016.
 
The "52 wk & all-time" is 4,703.24 set on 10/5/2017. The 52 week low is 3743.73, set on 11/03/16.
 
The SPREAD is the difference between the close  on the NY and the close on the VL
Both are basically the same market, with the only exception being about 250
OTC stocks in the VL (the rest, over 1500, are NY listed).

It tells us how the two separate markets are currently acting
with the VL leaning slightly to the OTC market
.


The graph below shows the closing indices on (9/21/01), the end of the
first full week of trading after the Attack on America.


 Indices on 9/11/2001
 
The below table shows the 52 week low, when it expired, the point difference
and the % over that low at the closing price on the week.

%2 week lows on the indices

  There are 0 indices with less than 10% to fall from the 52 week low this past week vs 0 the week before
 
The above table shows 9 indices with more than 20% to fall, before breaking the 52 week low,
versus 9
two weeks ago and 8 three week ago.
 

The below figures are % change from closing year-end indices for 2015
and cover this past week versus the week before.


Weekly Index changes
 
Zero indices finished in negative territory "year-to-date" this past week versus 0 the week before and 0 three weeks ago. The NY index has a difference of up (+0.96%) while the VL has a difference of up (+1.14%). This tells us the big OTC stocks outperformed the blue chips for week 4 after stronger blue chips for 7 weeks (more bullish).

The difference between these two indices is the SPREAD. The SPREAD climbs when the VL is climbing faster than the NY, and falls when the VL falls faster than the NY. The VL tends to lean more toward the direction of the Nasdaq stocks, or we could say, the big OTC stocks.
 
The markets tend to climb when the VL beats the NY, and falls when the NY beats the VL. 
 
The SPREAD is "unique" to the Stocks in the Spotlight since we designed it in 1990 by producing an "equal weighted value equation" allowing a better view of the longer term markets when comparing the big OTC stocks to the New York Exchange listed stocks. The SPREAD has been adjusted for the big change of the New York index at the beginning of 2004 .

The OTC stocks carried in the VL (the only part of the "
SPREAD (NY vs VL)" with
OTC stocks in it) are only a couple of hundred of the top OTC stocks, because the majority
of the stocks in the VL are NY listed, and none are smaller caps. This means when the VL
performs better than the NY it shows more buying in the top OTC stocks, or vice versa.

The below figures are the discount to the 52 week
high
and cover this past week versus the week before.

Index 52 week high
 
Nine indices set a new 52 week high this past week vs 8 the week before. 311 weeks ago we watched all the indices set a new 52 week high on the same day, but not since.

I have always said that when all the indices reach a new high on the same day it will be the top of the current market and it will be down for a while. This happened on March 26, 2012 and the markets have not been able to accomplish that same thing again.


All the indices reached a new "all-time" on 4/23/2010, which turned out to have been the market top, taking 135 trading days (11/4/10) (27 weeks) to reach another high. The next time around they all reached an all-time high on 4/29/11, 233 trading days (44 weeks) before reaching another new all-time (3/26/2012).

There are 0 indices with a "double digit" percentage discount to the 52 week high (a definition of a correction) vs 0 the previous week.

When we look at the indices compared to the 52 week high, we get a look at the shorter picture. However, the discount to the "all-time high" (below) will continue to show the results of the longer term market.

More than a 10 percent discount to the 52 week high is "one" definition of a correction.
More than a 20 percent discount to the 52 week high is "one" definition of a bear market.



The below figures are the discount to the all-time high
compared to this past weeks close.

More than a 20 percent discount to the all-time high is another definition of a bear market.

Using
this definition, there are currently 0 indices in bear market
territory compared to 0
two weeks ago and 0
three weeks ago.

Use caution and buy the bargains!

Be sure to visit "The Current Market" for comments about the
current market and what to look for this coming week.

Clicking on "
The Current Market" will take you there!
 
Be sure to visit "Monthly Gains & Losses" for a look at the
past "monthly" performance on the indices going back to 1994.

Clicking on the "
Index Gains & Losses" will take you there!

Be sure to visit our
"Spotlight Futures" for a look at
metals, oil and currency futures updated weekly.
Clicking on the "
Spotlight Futures" will take you there!

Be sure to visit our weekly
"Stocks to Watch"
section
for brief news headlines and updated buy, sell, hold
opinions on several Spotlight favorites from the past.
Clicking on the "
Stocks To Watch" will take you there!
 


"If in the right stock, at the right price,
the market direction will mean little!"
 
There is still many negatives in the economy, and the markets, so continue to use caution and stick with value stocks for safety.
 

Choose wisely!

I am J.R. Budke and this is my opinion!

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The recommendations and updates in this week ahead may include "forward- looking" statements as that term is defined in the Private Security Reform Act of 1995, & therefore are subject to various risks & uncertainties. There can be no assurance that actual results, business conditions, business developments, losses & contingencies, and local & foreign factors will not differ materially from those suggested in the "forward-looking" statements as a result of various factors, including market conditions, competition, advances in technology, acquisitions, potential litigation, personnel changes, capital availability, and all sorts of other factors. Do not make investments based on the material provided in this article. Investors should not make decisions based on any of the material featured here without first consulting with their brokers and/or financial advisors.

J.R. Budke was a stock broker from 1981 to 2000, an options principle since 1982 and a branch office manager since 1987. JR became inactive as a stockbroker on 12/31/99. J.R. writes most of the articles and opinions for the Stocks in the Spotlight. The stories and stocks found on this site, or any "Stocks in the Spotlight" written material, are the opinions of J.R. Budke, unless other wise stated, and should not be considered as advice. You should not purchase any stocks solely on the opinions found on the "Stocks in the Spotlight's" web site or in any of its written material. You should also be aware that options are not for everybody and carry a high degree of risk.

The "Stocks in the Spotlight" provides information only, this is not meant to be a recommendation to buy or sell the profiled security, nor is this an offer to buy or sell the security.
The publishers of "Stocks in the Spotlight" are not investment advisors and are not acting in any way to influence the purchase or sale of the security. Before purchasing or selling any security profiled, it is encouraged and recommended that you consult a stockbroker or your registered financial advisor. The reader must understand that the companies we select may involve a high degree of investment risk. Potential investors must understand that they may lose all or a portion of their investment due to the risk involved. Some of the stocks covered on this page may be sponsors, or advertisers, for the Stocks in the Spotlight and may have paid cash, or stock, for advertising programs.

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