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The Trend

The DOW 30

The SPREAD

2010 vs 2009

The Current Market

Market Comment



August -- 27 -- 2010


The Closing Markets Last Week



The SPREAD

The SPREAD measures the difference between the Value Line index
and the New York index. The higher the SPREAD the more
"bullish", the lower the SPREAD the more "bearish"!

The following charts show the 30, 90, 180 day & 1 Year SPREAD

This should give us a better idea of the current and near term market!



The 30 DAY trend can change fast !
The trend line turned down 2 weeks ago, after staying up 4 weeks !

The 90 DAY trend line turned down 12 weeks ago, 
after staying up for 22 weeks !


The 180 DAY trend line turned down 3 weeks ago, after staying up 85 weeks,
after staying down for 29 weeks !

The 1 YEAR trend line turned up 54 weeks ago after staying down for 85 weeks ago
 after staying up over 4 years!

The SPREAD is off -15.68% from the 52 week high and remaining deep in correction territory

The SPREAD closed at 1666.95 off - 0.86 (-0.05%) this past week vs up +8.70, or (0.52%)   the previous week. The new record "all-time" high 17 weeks ago for the SPREAD & VL was a sign of a market top and we have not seen any strong sign that a market bottom has been found yet. Both are currently off more than 14% from the 52 week high, with the SPREAD off over 15%.

The definition of a correction is a loss of more than 10% to the 52 week high.
A bear market is a loss of 20% to the 52 week high

The 52 week & all-time closing high is 1977.02 reached on 4/23/10. The 52 week low is is 1368.68, set on 9/2/09.

The SPREAD closed up  8 days (+ 177.32) and down 12days (- 263.41), for the  15 trading days in the month of August and off - 86.09, or (- 4.86%) on the month. Last year the SPREAD closed higher in August See how the markets have done each month for the last ten years by clicking here.

In September of 2001, the SPREAD had a net difference of -123.56, the greatest monthly (negative) difference ever, until the SPREAD set a new record monthly difference in June/08, off -162.70, or (-14.14%), which held until October/08, when the SPREAD closed with a difference of off -294.38, or (- 43.43%).

Watch closer! The markets should follow the SPREAD.

Monthly Activity on the SPREAD

Month

Up
Days

Down Days

Total Days

Gain

Loss

Change

July ------ 2009

15

7

22

257.83

-110.01

147.83

August

13

8

21

221.70

-136.97

84.73

September

13

8

21

216.74

-123.56

96.69

October

11

11

22

201.69

-299.56

- 97.87

November

9

11

20

188.07

-123.56

42.69

December

15

7

22

208.39

-69.09

139.30

January ------ 2010

11

8

19

124.66

-181.58

- 36.92

February

13

6

19

170.79

-93.11

87.68

March

16

7

23

212.92

-70.04

142.88

April15622256.52-123.56120.00
May8620302.85-428.27- 135.42
June91322226.07- 373.84-147.77
July111021305.40- 182.89122.51

Click here to view the larger SPREAD chart

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