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The Trend

The DOW 30

The SPREAD

2007 vs 2008

The Week Ahead

Market Comment



May -- 2 -- 2008


The Closing Markets Last Week



The SPREAD

The SPREAD measures the difference between the Value Line index
and the New York index. The higher the SPREAD the more
"bullish", the lower the SPREAD the more "bearish"!

The following charts show the 30, 90, 180 day & 1 Year SPREAD

This should give us a better idea of the current and near term market!


The 30 DAY trend can change fast !
The trend line turned up 5 weeks ago after staying down for 5 weeks !



The 90 DAY trend line turned up this past week after being down 1 week !



The 180 DAY trend line turned down 33 weeks ago after staying up for up 44 weeks, down for 17 weeks, and up for 52 weeks !


The 1 YEAR trend line turned down 22 weeks ago after staying up
since 5/27/03, over 4 years after staying down 8 months!


The SPREAD failed to set a new all-time high for week 41, closing out the week still in correction territory for the year

The SPREAD closed at 1315.19, up + 20.76, or + 1.60% this past week vs up + 4.45, or + 0.34% the previous week. The SPREAD moved out of bear market territory 3 weeks ago, but remained in correction territory for the last 25 weeks.The SPREAD closed off -15.74 percent from the 52 week high. (more than - 20% from the high is considered a bear market and more than -10% is considered a correction)

The SPREAD has remained over the 1100 level for 658 straight trading days, over 1200 for 31 straight days, back over 1300 this past week after remaining under for 79 trading days, under 1400 for the last 113 trading days and under the 1500 level for the last 144 straight trading days.

The 1060 and the slight 1040 support levels were both taken out 157 weeks ago, leaving the next fairly strong support at the 990 level, but the markets bounced back before getting there. The markets may need to test these levels again before this bear market finds the bottom.

The SPREAD set an all-time high of 1560.89 on 7/13/07. The 52 week low is 1163.93, set on 3/10/08.

The SPREAD closed up 1 day (+33.57) and down 1 day (-9.82), for the 2 trading days in the month of May, and up + 23.76, or + 1.80% on the month. Last year the SPREAD closed higher in May. See how the markets have done each month for the last ten years by clicking here.

Watch closer! The markets should follow the SPREAD. In September of 2001 the SPREAD had a net difference of -123.56, the greatest monthly difference so far.

Monthly Activity on the SPREAD

Month

Up
Days

Down Days

Total Days

Gain

Loss

Change

May ------ 2007

14

8

22

141.43

-82.89

58.53

June

10

11

21

93.65

-117.90

-24.25

July

11

10

21

89.28

-174.70

-85.42

August

14

9

23

181.57

-174.75

6.81

September

8

11

19

107.31

-123.56

3.22

October

10

13

23

146.27

-121.90

24.36

November

7

14

21

138.32

-243.57

-105.25

December

10

10

20

146.88

-157.51

-10.63

January ------ 2008

9

11

20

165.68

-242.88

-57.01

February

9

11

20

146.81

-195.53

-48.72

March

9

8

17

214.03

-213.56

0.15

April

12

10

22

180.57

-123.56

86.06

Click here to view the larger SPREAD chart

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